Dataset: AOGCM-derived upwelling data

Name: Model projected winds, pressure, and temperature in upwelling systems derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)
Published: 2016-06-27
Keywords: oceans

Cite This Dataset

Project:

Climate Change and Upwelling -- Comparative Analysis of Current and Future Responses of the California and Benguela Ecosystems (CalBenJI)

Principal Investigator:

Dr Ryan Rykaczewski (University of South Carolina)

Co-Principal Investigator:

Bryan Black (University of Texas at Austin, UT Austin)

Steven Bograd (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA SWFSC ERD)

William Sydeman (Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research)

Contact:

Dr Ryan Rykaczewski (University of South Carolina)

BCO-DMO Data Manager:

Shannon Rauch (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, WHOI BCO-DMO)

Version:

27 June 2016

Version Date:

2016-06-27

Restricted:

Validated:

Current State:

Preliminary and in progress

Data URL:

https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/663999/data

Model projected winds, pressure, and temperature in upwelling systems derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)

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Description

Model projected winds, pressure, and temperature in upwelling systems; data are derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Data include surface wind stress (N md-2), air-surface temperatures (degrees C), and sea-level pressures (hPa). Robustness of changes through time are denoted by the "signal-to-noise" ratio, which is defined here as the mean multi-model change divided by the inter-model standard deviation.

The "Get Data" button above opens an Excel file containing data on seasonal wind changes, summer wind changes, summer surface temperature changes, and summer PSL changes for the areas of interest in a lat/lon grid.

See a complete description of the data and initial interpretation in the following manuscript:
Rykaczewski, RR, JP Dunne, WJ Sydeman, M García-Reyes, BA Black, and SJ Bograd. 2015. Poleward displacement of coastal upwelling-favorable winds in the ocean's eastern boundary currents through the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters 42:6424–6431, doi:10.1002/2015GL064694.

Methods & Sampling

Here we utilize output from 21 AOGCMs to investigate the proposed mechanism of upwelling intensification with climate change following RCP 8.5, a high radiative forcing scenario (Riahi et al., 2011). Model projections of oceanic and atmospheric properties during the 2071–2100 period are compared to an 1861–1890 base period. Monthly fields of air-surface temperature, sea-level pressure, and meridional wind stress are obtained from AOGCM output contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. Criteria for model selection include availability of monthly output for the 1861–2005 period parameterized with estimates of historical greenhouse gas concentrations (i.e., the CMIP5 "historical" experiment) and for the 2006–2100 period parameterized as specified by RCP 8.5. Selected models and their horizontal resolutions are listed in Table S1 of Rykaczewski et al (2015; doi:10.1002/2015GL064694).

Model data are subset to regions relevant for the four major coastal upwelling ecosystems. For each region, wind stresses are examined from the coast to 600 km offshore, broadly representative of the area of upwelling-favorable winds (Jacox et al., 2014). To represent the major oceanic sea-level pressure and surface temperature fields relevant to forcing of the upwelling process (Schroeder et al., 2013), these properties are extracted from 600 km offshore to a meridian about 2500 km offshore (155 deg W for the California, 45 deg W for the Canary, 130 deg W for the Humboldt, and 15 deg W for the Benguela Current systems). For representation of sea-level pressure and air-surface temperature over western portions of the continents, properties are examined from the coastline to 600 km inland. Latitudinal domains are chosen to include eastern boundary current regions of seasonal upwelling and are 26 deg N to 49 deg N for the California, 26 deg N to 44 deg N for the Canary, 16 deg S to 44 deg S for the Humboldt, and 16 deg S to 34 deg S for the Benguela Current systems. The summer season is defined as May–July (January–March) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. Positive values of surface wind stress correspond to northerly (southerly) wind stress for the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere.

To estimate model means and intermodel standard deviation for data plotted spatially, variables are interpolated onto a common 1 degree × 1 degree grid. Significance of projected changes are defined relative to the intermodel spread and are considered robust where the multimodel mean change exceeds the intermodel standard deviation.

More Information about this dataset

Funding Sources