<div><p>To evaluate how future warming may affect species overlap, we examined projections of ocean temperature from experimental runs of CM2.6—a high-resolution global climate model developed by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The climate model simulates an annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO2 over the course of 80-years, reaching a doubling of CO2 by year 70. Under the IPCC’s RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, CO2 is predicted to approximately double by 2075 (van Vuuren et al., 2011). The CM2.6 model projects temperature as the change in temperature from the initial year, such that projections are in relative units (ΔºC). We use ΔºC projections for surface and bottom waters for the spring months of March, April and May. To convert projected temperature change (ΔºC) to absolute temperatures (ºC), projected temperature changes were added to the long-term mean climatology in each 0.25°latitude x 0.25°longitude grid cell. The fitted species distribution models were then projected with the CM2.6 sea bottom and sea surface temperatures for each simulated time step (t). Projections were made for each 0.25°latitude x 0.25°longitude grid cell j in the study region while holding species biomass constant at its overall mean and using the mean depth and substrate for each grid cell. Projections were also made with average biomass set equal to 50% and 150% of the historical mean to explore the effect of abundance on projected species occupancy.</p></div>
<div><p>Predicted probability of occupancy and abundance under a doubling of carbon dioxide using simulations from GFDL CM2.6. These data were published in Selden (2018).</p>
<p>The "Get Data" button on this page provides a tabular version of this dataset. These data are also available in the following R Datafile containing a DataFrame named “projected.”<br />
<a href="https://datadocs.bco-dmo.org/data/305/CC_Fishery_Adaptations/753188/1/data/projected.RData">https://datadocs.bco-dmo.org/data/305/CC_Fishery_Adaptations/753188/1/da...</a></p>
<p>Related dataset:<br />
"Observed and modeled presence 1968-2014": <a href="https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/753142">https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/753142</a></p></div>
Projected species probability of occupancy and abundance under ocean warming
<div><p>Range size and species overlap were calculated using the R-file species_overlap_BCO.R available in the "Supplemental Documents" section on this page.</p>
<p>BCO-DMO data manager processing notes:<br />
* exported RData as csv and imported into the BCO-DMO data system.<br />
* periods in column names in the RData Frame changed to underscores in exported csv version to support import into the BCO-DMO data system.<br />
* columns rounded to three decimal places during csv export: "btemp","stemp","preds1","preds","se.fit","preds1.upr","preds1.lwr"</p></div>
753188
Projected species probability of occupancy and abundance under ocean warming
2019-01-18T01:10:54-05:00
2019-01-18T01:10:54-05:00
2023-07-07T16:10:26-04:00
urn:bcodmo:dataset:753188
Predicted probability of occupancy and abundance under a doubling of carbon dioxide using simulations from GFDL CM2.6
Predicted probability of occupancy and abundance under a doubling of carbon dioxide using simulations from GFDL CM2.6. These data were published in Selden (2018).
false
Pinsky, M., Selden, R. (2019) Predicted probability of occupancy and abundance under a doubling of carbon dioxide using simulations from GFDL CM2.6. Biological and Chemical Oceanography Data Management Office (BCO-DMO). (Version 1) Version Date 2019-03-05 [if applicable, indicate subset used]. doi:10.1575/1912/bco-dmo.753188.1 [access date]
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10.1575/1912/bco-dmo.753188.1
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2019-03-05
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SUBSET DATA
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CSV
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