Dataset: Projected changes in habitat suitability

Name: Projected changes in habitat suitability for 33 marine species on the Northeast US shelf based on species distribution models fit to bottom trawl survey data from the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center
Published: 2019-04-22
Keywords: oceans

Cite This Dataset

DOI:10.1575/1912/bco-dmo.765386.1

Spatial Extent: N:44.875 E:-64.875 S:33.625 W:-76.875

Temporal Extent: 1963 - 2050

Project:

Adaptations of fish and fishing communities to rapid climate change (CC Fishery Adaptations)

Principal Investigator:

Malin Pinsky (Rutgers University)

Lauren Rogers (Stanford University)

Co-Principal Investigator:

Robert Griffin (Stanford University)

Kevin St. Martin (Rutgers University)

Scientist:

Emma Fuller (Princeton University)

Talia Young (Rutgers University)

Contact:

Lauren Rogers (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA-AFSC)

BCO-DMO Data Manager:

Shannon Rauch (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, WHOI BCO-DMO)

Version:

Version Date:

2019-04-22

Restricted:

Validated:

Yes

Current State:

Final no updates expected

Projected changes in habitat suitability for 33 marine species on the Northeast US shelf based on species distribution models fit to bottom trawl survey data from the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center

Abstract:

Projected changes in habitat suitability for 33 marine species on the Northeast US shelf. Changes in habitat suitability are calculated based on species distribution models fit to bottom trawl survey data from the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center. Positive values indicate an increase in habitat suitability by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005). The spatial resolution of projections is 0.25 x 0.25 degrees.

Expand/Collapse All

Archival Copy

Version Date	Archive	Persistent Identifier	Date Assigned
2019-04-22	Marine Biological Laboratory/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Library (MBLWHOI DLA)	10.1575/1912/bco-dmo.765386.1	2019-05-22

Description

Methods & Sampling

The following methods are excerpted from Rogers et al. (in press):
Bottom trawl data from the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) fall (1963-2014) surveys were used to characterize the realized thermal niches of species. At each survey station, fish of each species were counted and weighed, and surface and bottom temperature measurements were taken. Correction factors were applied to standardize catch rates for changes in vessel and gear type. A total of 33 species were selected based on their near continuous presence in the survey as well as relative importance to commercial fisheries. For 4 species, data from 1972 onwards were used because observations were irregular prior to that year.

Generalized Additive Models were used to estimate the realized thermal niches of species. We restricted k (number of knots) to 4 or 6 for each of our covariates to ensure biologically meaningful responses. Our response variable was probability of occurrence in a trawl haul, and we used a binomial response with logit transform:

p(occurᵧ,ⱼ) ~ logit-1 (s(STᵧ,ⱼ)+s(BTᵧ,ⱼ)+s(meanbiomassᵧ)+s(rugosityⱼ))

where STᵧ,ⱼ and BTᵧ,ⱼ are sea surface temperature and bottom temperature measured at each haul location j in year y, and meanbiomassᵧ is the average annual catch across all hauls to account for interannual changes in abundance due to, e.g., fishing. Rugosityᵧ is a measure of benthic habitat roughness, measured as the Terrain Ruggedness Index, using the GEBCO 2014 30-arcsecond bathymetry data (downloaded 4 Feb 2015 from http://www.gebco.net/). The resulting estimated smooth functions describing the relationship between probability of occurrence and temperature can be interpreted as realized thermal niches.

For each species, the change in predicted probability of occurrence under future (2040-2050) projected climate conditions was compared to historical (1963-2005) conditions for each cell within a 0.25°x0.25° spatial grid. Because the modeled probability of occurrence included a component of catchability, values for each species were scaled by dividing by the maximum observed or predicted probability of occurrence across the study area. Positive values for a grid square indicated a projected increase in probability of occurrence, whereas negative values indicated a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.

See related dataset for NEFSC bottom trawl data: https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/753142 (doi: 10.1575/1912/bco-dmo.753142.1)

Data Processing Description

Data were processed using R version 3.4.4.

BCO-DMO Processing:
- replaced spaces with underscores in the column headers.

Data Files

File
projected_changes_habitat.csv (Comma Separated Values (.csv), 137.82 KB) MD5:9e19330380f8ef8717c570ace36ef7c1 Primary data file for dataset ID 765386

More Information about this dataset

Funding Sources

Funding Source	Award Number
NSF Division of Ocean Sciences	OCE-1426891

Deployments

None available yet

Instruments

None available yet

Parameters

Date and time formats are described in python strftime() syntax.

Supplied Name	Supplied description	Supplied Units	Standard Name
brosme_brosme	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
centropristis_striata	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
gadus_morhua	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
glyptocephalus_cynoglossus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
hippoglossoides_platessoides	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
hippoglossus_hippoglossus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
leucoraja_ocellata	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
limanda_ferruginea	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
lophius_americanus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
zoarces_americanus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
melanogrammus_aeglefinus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
merluccius_albidus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
merluccius_bilinearis	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
paralichthys_dentatus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
peprilus_triacanthus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
pollachius_virens	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
pseudopleuronectes_americanus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
scomber_scombrus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
scophthalmus_aquosus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
sebastes_fasciatus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
squalus_acanthias	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
stenotomus_chrysops	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
urophycis_chuss	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
urophycis_tenuis	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
homarus_americanus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
placopecten_magellanicus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
loligo_pealeii	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
clupea_harengus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
illex_illecebrosus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
menticirrhus_americanus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
pomatomus_saltatrix	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
cynoscion_regalis	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
micropogonias_undulatus	Change in habitat suitability for species. Positive values for a grid square indicate a projected increase in probability of occurrence by 2040-2050 relative to historical (1963-2005), whereas negative values indicate a projected decrease in probability of occurrence.	unitless	no_bcodmo_term
lon	Longitude	decimal degrees	lon
lat	Latitude	decimal degrees	lat